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LEARNING FROM COMPLEX SYSTEMS


Andrew Hatch


@hatchman76

Main takeaways

Incidents are always going to happen, they are valuable, so use them

Seek understanding, not just knowledge of complex systems

Humans will always be the adaptable parts of your complex system. Not automation

Production systems always run in a degraded state

whoami

20+ years

Linear Models of Delivery

Evolution to autonomous teams

Nodes in a network

Independent, self-organizing
....mostly

Mindset shift

Centralized,
command and control

Distributed,
localized

How can we learn?

As complexity increases,

and the knowledge gap grows?

Traditional Incident Management

Incidents are always preventable!

People aren't following processes!

Management is not in control!

The Post-mortem

IN

OUT

Root Cause
Action Items!

"How could you not have noticed that?"

"But isn't that the way it should work?"

Hindsight bias

Diagnosis?

Is there a better way?

Maybe learning and adapting is a better strategy?

Management of work

People are the unpredictable parts of the system

variance and local adaptation must be neutralised

Management should enforce rules and workers should obey

All functions and associated training are defined in intimate detail, people only act as directed

Frederick Winslow Taylor

The Principles of Scientific Management (1911)

=

"unpredictable"

"inefficient"

"untrustworthy"

WORK-AS-IMAGINED = WORK-AS-DONE

rooted in linear thinking, which is understandable due to the mass industrilaisation of the 20th century.

Mechanisation of animals from the late 18th century reaching it's zenith in the early 20th. Mechanisation of thought, electrons replacing gears and cogs

>

Incidents followed this pattern. Problems are thought of a chain of events, needing isolation down

More of than not this is the human, the unpredictable, flawed component of the system

Breakdown follows reductionism principles

Linear Thinking

Chain of events

1:1 Cause and Effect

Breakdown in WAI vs WAD!

Causal Determinism

Reductionism

Anything can be known,

by following reducible analysis....

and controlling the environment

Knowledge and Understanding

(Linear Analysis and Systems Thinking)

Understanding the affects of environments is crucial!

What are the influencing factors, internal and external?

How does the system respond and adapt its behaviors?

Where linear analysis breaks down

ROOT CAUSE!

5 Whys

???

???

???

Characteristics of Complex Systems

Philosophy and sciences can agree that:

They have lots of components, that interact locally, not globally

Small changes done locally, can have unintented effects globally

Embed in their environments, adapt, grow and sensitive to changes

Require constant energy, entropy is constant, equilibrium is impossible

Hierarchy imposes constraints, added layers become more abstract

They have a history, which is crucial to their growth

How can we learn better?

Contributing factors

Signals received

Event timeline

Scribe

Facilitator

Patterns

Themes

Focus areas

Support & assistance

We will build more resilient systems

And improve our Knowledge and Understanding

Resiliency in nature

Australian Eucalypts

We've engineered resilience for millenia

Conditions for Resiliency

Learn from incidents as much as possible
They are part of normal complex system behavior. Use them.

You can't wait for resilience to evolve naturally.
It must become an on-going practice

Create conditions and environments where teams can sustain adaptive capacity - wherever the work-is-done

Understand the interactions between people and technology.
Don't isolate them as separate challenges

Focus and promote what you do well.
Sustain and grow the learning culture

Thank you

https://lfi.hatchman76.com

@hatchman76